Bitcoin ETF Fund Gets Net Withdrawal of $651 Million, BTC Is Going to Fall Sharply?

Over the past five days, Bitcoin has faced strong selling pressure as the Bitcoin Spot ETF funds in the US have net cash outflows of up to $651 million. If this trend lasts another week, the total Bitcoin ETF spot market value could fall by about $1.65 billion.

On February 15, however, Bitcoin rose above $97,500. Accordingly, BTC's bullish momentum is not entirely dependent on capital inflows from institutions. However, it is more likely that this upward momentum is due to some institutions buying Bitcoin futures contracts to offset the impact from the ETF sell-off.

In addition to pressure from ETFs, several large companies have continued to increase their Bitcoin holdings, including Strategy (MicroStrategy), Metaplanet, and KULR Technology. Some traditional financial institutions such as Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo have also added Bitcoin to their portfolios.

Retail investors return to the market

Retail investors are said to be actively collecting Bitcoin. According to Glassnode, since the beginning of February, supply from addresses with less than 1 BTC has bought in more than $80 million. As such, the pressure to buy BTC doesn't just come from large investment institutions.

However, wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC tend to sell net. At the same time, over the past three months, the number of searches for the keyword “Bitcoin” on Google has decreased significantly. This suggests that the overall sentiment of the market remains cautious.

However, with the cash flow from individual investors starting to return, Bitcoin could continue to maintain its upward momentum if market sentiment gradually turns positive.

In mid-November 2024, Google's search volume for “Bitcoin” peaked, coinciding with a 38 percent rise in price in less than 10 days. However, even as Bitcoin continues to rise by $16,000, hitting an all-time high of $109,340 (Jan. 20), interest from retail investors has not increased according to this indicator.

Weakening US economy could boost capital inflows into Bitcoin

Meanwhile, investor sentiment is also more positive thanks to the business results of large corporations. The S&P 500 traded near historic highs, with strong quarterly profits from Exxon (10 percent), JPMorgan (12 percent) and UnitedHealth (15 percent).

The S&P 500's 2 percent gain equates to $1,000 billion in capitalization. Accordingly, just a small part of the capital flow from the stock market to move to Bitcoin can also help the price of BTC exceed the $105,000 mark.

In addition, concerns about corporate profits are on the rise due to the global tariff war, making haven assets such as gold more attractive. According to data released February 14, U.S. retail sales fell 0.9 percent in January, the sharpest decline in more than a year. Jefferies economist Thomas Simons warned if the trend continues, U.S. first-quarter GDP could grow negative.

However, Bitcoin is still unable to grow as investors lose faith and plan to stockpile U.S. Bitcoin. Despite Trump's support, the plan has yet to materialize. Some legislative proposals at the state level are also focusing on digital asset regulation rather than Bitcoin hoarding, creating uncertainty about government acceptance.

Still, Bitcoin staying above $95,000 despite selling pressure from ETFs could be a positive signal. In the context of weakening macroeconomic conditions and increasing instability in traditional markets, Bitcoin could become an attractive alternative for investors.