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Flipside makes on-chain user trend prediction for 2025
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Flipside Crypto's “2024 Onchain Users Report” will reveal the hidden corners behind the impressive numbers, and make important predictions about onchain user trends in 2025.
Flipside, the cryptocurrency investment platform, has just released the “2024 Onchain Users Report”, which provides a comprehensive look at user activity on prominent blockchains in 2024.
Based on real-time on-chain data from Flipside's system, the report not only analyzes traditional performance metrics in depth, but also focuses on new multivariate metrics, thereby painting a clear picture of the health of the on-chain user community as we enter 2025.
Crypto Market's Attraction Soars in 2024
In 2024, the number of new users entering the cryptocurrency market increased significantly, peaking at 19.4 million users in October. Base emerged with 13.7 million new users in December, eight times more than second-place Polygon.
The trend of new user growth was generally stable throughout 2024, however there was also a slight decline in August. Experts say this growth comes in part from the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies by institutions, as demonstrated by the slew of BTC and ETH ETFs announced earlier in the year.
In addition, other positive factors such as Grayscale's addition of several new cryptocurrencies to the list of “assets under consideration” and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to lower interest rates during the September 2024 meeting also contributed to the bullish sentiment in the market.
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The base has one. years of remarkable growth. From 244,700 new users in January, Base has grown 56-fold, reaching an average of 4.7 million new users per month in 2024.
Base's appeal comes from Coinbase's base user base (which holds $130 billion of user assets), along with DeFi protocols like Aerodrome. In addition, the fact that Base actively encourages areas such as meme coin trading and AI on chain through initiatives such as Based Agents also contributes to this success.
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In contrast to Base's strong growth, Bitcoin shows a relatively subdued picture. Despite the significant increase in the value of BTC, the number of new users of Bitcoin did not break through in 2024, reaching an average of 935,900 new users per month, ranking third from bottom out of the seven oldest blockchains analyzed.
This suggests that the rise in the price of Bitcoin comes mainly from the activity of existing users, not from attracting new users.
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Ethereum continues to maintain its position as it attracts an average of 1.56 million new users per month, more than layer 2 solutions such as Arbitrum (1.2 million) and Optimism (348,800).
Arbitrum also had bright spots when it peaked at 3.3 million new users in May, thanks to the Arbitrum One initiative and the expansion of GameFi and SocialFi integration.
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Among the newly launched blockchains, Aleo has the highest average number of new users, reaching 175,200 new users per month, compared to Blast's 134,900 and Sei's 90,700.
Base leads in the number of “Super users”
Base continues to lead the way in the number of DeFi-related “superusers”, with 15.1 million wallets executing 100 or more transactions, 38.4% more than Ethereum.
*Super user: Users who have made at least 100 transactions on a blockchain.
Polygon also showed growth as it attracted 1.5 million new “superusers” and recorded 867.7 million transactions from these users. Polygon not only succeeds in attracting new users, but also motivating them to participate in diverse onchain activities, including GameFi.
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Ethereum still holds an important position in the DeFi space with 10.9 million active super users, more than Arbitrum and Optimism combined. Many users still prefer Ethereum because of its liquidity, market position and risk concerns when transferring assets to layers 2.
Uniswap is the most popular DEX exchange
Uniswap continues to dominate the DEX market as it ranks #1 on most blockchains, with the exception of Avalanche and Blast. Uniswap had quite good growth on Base, from 36.8% to 91.3% DEX user market share. On Avalanche, Trader Joe remains the leader with 61.1% of total DEX activity.
The most used DEXs are tending to converge between “super users” and new users. This suggests that new users are learning experiences from longtime users, or top DEXs that have found effective ways to engage users.
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On-chain User Trends 2025: Flipside Predictions
Based on data analysis, Flipside's report makes several predictions about the trend of on-chain users in 2025.
First, Base with growth in 2024 will become a model for new blockchains in attracting and creating a playing field for users. Base's success in trading meme coins and onchain AI suggests that these innovative applications will be a key growth driver in the future.
Second, Ethereum's user base and liquidity advantage will create great competitive pressure for layer 2 solutions. Layer 2 teams like Optimism need to work on improving strategies to attract users from Ethereum.
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Third, differentiation will be the key to success in a competitive context. Protocols that focus on differentiated on-chain services, which go beyond basic DeFi operations, have the opportunity to attract market interest.
In the end, the quality of the user will be more important than the quantity. Ecosystem developers need to find ways to encourage sustainable and diverse user participation in on-chain activities, not only in trading but also in governance and staking.
On-chain user quality 2024: Rapid growth but lack of depth
The report also introduces Flipside Scores, a system for quantifying the quality of users' on-chain operations. Flipside Scores provide an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of each ecosystem, helping developers make the right adjustments.
Overall, user quality tends to decline in 2024. The main reason is the massive increase in new users who are not yet truly deeply involved in the ecosystem. For example, Base, despite having a huge amount of new users, has a low user quality score, indicating that they are only involved in a limited number of on-chain activities.
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Ethereum also recorded a drop in user quality scores ahead of the launch of ETH ETFs. This suggests that institutional adoption may drive growth in the number of wallets, but does not mean that users will actively participate in on-chain activities.
In contrast, Blast has a high user quality score, reflecting the blockchain's ability to encourage users to participate in a variety of on-chain activities.
Flipside's Onchain 2024 User Report provides detailed and comprehensive analyses of user activity on blockchains, and makes important predictions for 2025. User quality, differentiation and innovation will be key factors determining the sustainable success of blockchains and web3 projects in the future.