Alphractal CEO: This is just the beginning of a bullrun

In the latest article by Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson, his company's data shows that the crypto market is in a strong bullish trend, but public interest has yet to return like previous bullrun cycles.

The Wikipedia view analysis chart on crypto shows that user interest has fallen sharply from its old peaks in 2017 and 2021. Typically, every time Bitcoin peaks, searches and views on Wikipedia increase sharply, reflecting the participation of retail investors. However, this time, although Bitcoin is approaching long-term highs, views remain low, indicating that the market is mostly controlled by large institutions rather than retail cash flows.

Data from 4Chan, a platform that has often featured lively discussions about crypto in previous cycles, also shows that interest levels are plummeting. During previous price spikes, every time Bitcoin entered the fomo phase, the number of posts about crypto on 4Chan skyrocketed. However, although the market is recovering, activity on 4Chan remains low, reflecting that retail has not yet returned to the market.

In addition, the number of new cryptocurrencies being created is growing rapidly again after a period of stagnation. This is a common sign in every bullrun cycle, when the market recovers and new projects emerge to take advantage of the inflow of cash. However, when retail has not really returned, these projects may be being pumped up by larger investment funds rather than capital inflows from retail investors.

Typically, during Bitcoin growth cycles, public interest will skyrocket across various platforms such as Wikipedia, 4Chan, Reddit, and Twitter. But current data suggest interest remains low, possibly due to a variety of reasons.

In part this is because the market is being controlled by large institutions and investment funds, rather than retail investors. In addition, after the sharp market crash in 2022 with events such as the collapse of FTX, Terra and other major projects, retail may remain cautious. Moreover, the media wave about crypto hasn't really returned as strongly as it used to be, when not many “crypto enrichment” stories have been widely circulated.

One user named, @SanaWhale suggested that this drop may not be a negative sign, but simply because crypto has become more popular. In other words, retail no longer needs to look for basic questions like “What is Bitcoin?” or “How does crypto work?” Moreover, because this knowledge has gradually become popular information. This may explain why interest on platforms such as Wikipedia or Google has declined.

João Wedson opposes this view, arguing that the crypto market is still very early and if you ask ordinary people on the street, most still do not understand crypto. He also mentioned that the team tracked many sentiment indicators on Reddit, Telegram and YouTube, but found no plausible explanation for the decline in engagement on these platforms compared to the past.

He went on to argue that if crypto were really more popular, then interest on Twitter and major media should have increased, but that didn't happen. In addition, on-chain trading volumes are also at a low level, which raises questions about the true level of market participation. He insists that this is not just a matter of figures, but of reality reflected through the data.

In summary, the crypto market is recovering strongly but retail participation remains weak, suggesting that this may just be the beginning of a bullrun cycle. Large organizations have been accumulating, while retail may only participate strongly when prices have risen higher. If history repeats itself, a strong wave of fomo is likely to come in the coming months, as Bitcoin surpasses its old peak and crypto once again becomes a hot topic in the media.