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US releases labour market data
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Although the labor situation in the United States improved by the end of 2024, many still expect the unemployment rate to continue to decline in the near term.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the first time has fallen to a one-month low, suggesting the U.S. labor market is cooling but remains stable. In the week ending Dec. 21, the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to 219,000, below economists' forecasts of 224,000.
Although the data has volatility due to seasonal factors, which involves businesses hiring temporary workers over the holiday period, it remains close to last year's average of around 220,000. That reflects a labor market that remains relatively stable with few signs of increased layoffs.
However, those who lose their jobs are having more difficulty finding new work, resulting in extended periods of receiving benefits. The number of people continuing to receive benefits, an indicator that reflects employment status, rose to 1.910 million in the week ending December 14, the highest level since November 2021.
The median duration of unemployment also rose to 23.7 weeks in November, the highest since April 2022. Despite a slight increase from the same period last year, this level has not shown signs of spiking as often seen when the labor market deteriorates.
The data coincides with the survey period for the December 2024 nonfarm employment report, which is scheduled for release on January 10, 2025. Economists predicted the pace of hiring could slow, with a forecast of 170,000 new jobs in December, lower than the 227,000 jobs created in November.
Economist Thomas Simons said the pace of hiring has slowed, but the pace of layoffs has not increased correspondingly. This reflects the fact that labor supplies are becoming more scarce, causing businesses to tend to retain employees rather than lay off.
These new data are not strong enough to change the Fed's strategy. Last week, the Fed cut interest rates for the third time since September 2024 but signaled it would pause further rate cuts.
Although the labor market is cooling in a controlled manner, inflation has not yet reached the 2% target, prompting the Fed to take a cautious approach and monitor the situation before making a decision on future interest rate adjustments.
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